Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.8% vs 50.3%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.8% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 23-19 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Kuraly 69.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 58.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.0%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 58.6%
41.4%
58.6%
Dowd
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
19
(42 meetings)
23
19
Dowd
Kuraly
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
5
9
Dowd
Kuraly
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
9
2
Dowd
Kuraly
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
9
8
Dowd
Kuraly
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (5,850)
51.5% (5,067)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
56.0% (100)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (1,600)
44.0% (1,063)
-0.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (5,015).
Dowd shoots right. Kuraly is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (2,194).
Home / Away
Dowd
Kuraly
Home
52.1% (3,753)
51.7% (3,152)
Away
49.6% (3,862)
48.7% (3,079)
By Period
Dowd
Kuraly
P1
51.9%
50.8%
P2
50.7%
50.0%
P3
50.1%
49.9%
OT
45.9%
54.8%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 02:07 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 1 | 14:34 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 02:55 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 2 | 16:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:48 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 12:33 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 10:44 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2022 | 3 | 15:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |