Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Monahan 52.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 77.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.4%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Dowd
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Dowd
Monahan
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
2
Dowd
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
1
Dowd
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
3
Dowd
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
53.0% (874)
-2.0%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
54.7% (161)
-54.7%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
47.5% (101)
-6.0%
On power play, Monahan has a +54.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Home / Away
Dowd
Monahan
Home
48.2% (471)
53.8% (558)
Away
48.8% (426)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Dowd
Monahan
P1
48.3%
49.5%
P2
46.8%
54.8%
P3
51.0%
52.8%
OT
30.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 16:55 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |