Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 51.2%). Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 34 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Monahan 51.2% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 45-35 in 80 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 91.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 86.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 57.5%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Dowd
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
45
(80 meetings)
35
45
Dowd
Monahan
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
30
Dowd
Monahan
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
23
5
Dowd
Monahan
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
8
10
Dowd
Monahan
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
51.1% (11,407)
+1.2%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
53.6% (2,582)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
45.9% (772)
-1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Dowd shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,426).
Home / Away
Dowd
Monahan
Home
51.9% (3,917)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Dowd
Monahan
P1
51.5%
51.0%
P2
50.4%
51.7%
P3
50.3%
51.0%
OT
45.9%
53.5%
Final 5 min
50.4%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 16:55 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:24 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 07:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:56 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:51 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |