Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Jarvis 46.3% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 82.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.2%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 50.7%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 82.3%
17.7%
82.3%
Dowd
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Dowd
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
0
1
Dowd
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
42.6% (54)
+8.4%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
33.3% (6)
-33.3%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
40.0% (15)
+1.5%
On power play, Jarvis has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Jarvis is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (14).
Home / Away
Dowd
Jarvis
Home
48.2% (471)
43.6% (39)
Away
48.8% (426)
38.9% (36)
By Period
Dowd
Jarvis
P1
48.3%
36.0%
P2
46.8%
48.3%
P3
51.0%
36.8%
OT
30.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
23.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |