Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Jarvis on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Jarvis 42.5% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Jarvis leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Jarvis 96.4%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 72.6%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 81.3%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 89.9%
10.1%
89.9%
Dowd
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Dowd
Jarvis
Last 10: Dowd 3-7 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
1
7
Dowd
Jarvis
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Jarvis
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
41.8% (354)
+10.5%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
43.7% (119)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
38.2% (157)
+5.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Dowd shoots right. Jarvis is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Dowd
Jarvis
Home
51.9% (3,917)
43.8% (336)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
38.4% (294)
By Period
Dowd
Jarvis
P1
51.5%
39.5%
P2
50.4%
39.5%
P3
50.3%
45.8%
OT
45.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
38.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:51 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:22 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 19:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 09:51 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |