Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 93.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 78.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 68.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Dowd
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dowd
Stamkos
Last 5: Dowd 3-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Dowd
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
0
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
57.1% (368)
-6.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
55.2% (96)
-55.2%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
50.0% (10)
-8.5%
On power play, Stamkos has a +55.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Dowd
Stamkos
Home
48.2% (471)
53.9% (230)
Away
48.8% (426)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Dowd
Stamkos
P1
48.3%
56.7%
P2
46.8%
54.1%
P3
51.0%
59.2%
OT
30.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
51.0%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |