Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 51.1%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 18-15 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 96.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 56.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 58.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Dowd
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
15
(33 meetings)
18
15
Dowd
Stamkos
Last 10: Dowd 7-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
8
Dowd
Stamkos
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
12
2
Dowd
Stamkos
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
5
Dowd
Stamkos
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,031)
50.5% (9,825)
+1.8%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
55.2% (1,729)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
49.6% (827)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Dowd shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,601).
Home / Away
Dowd
Stamkos
Home
51.9% (3,912)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Dowd
Stamkos
P1
51.6%
49.2%
P2
50.4%
52.7%
P3
50.3%
50.9%
OT
45.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 00:38 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 16:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:40 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:28 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 03:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:05 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 07:23 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 13, 2022 | 2 | 13:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |