Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Thompson 45.2% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 81.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 81.7%
Neutral zone
Thompson 58.5%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Dowd
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Dowd
Thompson
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
5
Dowd
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
0
Dowd
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
44.6% (661)
+6.4%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
48.4% (95)
-48.4%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
33.3% (33)
+8.2%
On power play, Thompson has a +48.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Thompson is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Dowd
Thompson
Home
48.2% (471)
45.7% (411)
Away
48.8% (426)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Dowd
Thompson
P1
48.3%
47.7%
P2
46.8%
45.7%
P3
51.0%
40.5%
OT
30.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
51.0%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:50 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:11 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:16 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |