Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Thompson 42.8% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 23-14 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 68.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 92.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 89.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Dowd
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
14
(37 meetings)
23
14
Dowd
Thompson
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
10
Dowd
Thompson
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
11
1
Dowd
Thompson
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
9
3
Dowd
Thompson
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
42.9% (3,540)
+9.4%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
46.9% (373)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
33.6% (265)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Dowd shoots right. Thompson is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,149).
Home / Away
Dowd
Thompson
Home
51.9% (3,917)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Dowd
Thompson
P1
51.5%
44.4%
P2
50.4%
43.7%
P3
50.3%
40.0%
OT
45.9%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 04:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:50 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:11 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 14:16 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:23 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 18:51 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 11:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 16:00 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |