Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dellandrea on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.8% vs Dellandrea 49.2% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dellandrea 81.6%
Defensive zone
Dellandrea 78.7%
Neutral zone
Dellandrea 58.5%
Result
Ty Dellandrea favored at 67.2%
32.8%
67.2%
Dowd
Dellandrea
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Dowd
Dellandrea
Last 5: Dowd 1-4 Dellandrea
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dellandrea
0
1
Dowd
Dellandrea
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dellandrea
0
1
Dowd
Dellandrea
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dellandrea
1
2
Dowd
Dellandrea
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Dellandrea
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (5,850)
50.5% (1,108)
+2.1%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
59.4% (32)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (1,600)
43.4% (318)
+0.5%
On power play, Dellandrea has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dellandrea shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,600).
Dowd shoots right. Dellandrea is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (311).
Home / Away
Dowd
Dellandrea
Home
52.1% (3,753)
49.4% (741)
Away
49.6% (3,862)
49.0% (717)
By Period
Dowd
Dellandrea
P1
51.9%
49.7%
P2
50.7%
48.6%
P3
50.1%
49.4%
OT
45.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Dellandrea
58.0%▲
53.5%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 16:19 | Offensive | Ty Dellandrea |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ty Dellandrea |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 08:25 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ty Dellandrea |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Ty Dellandrea |