Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Kozak 48.8% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kozak 74.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 65.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.0%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Dowd
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Dowd
Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Kozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Kozak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
48.3% (431)
+4.0%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
62.5% (8)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
48.9% (45)
-4.8%
On power play, Kozak has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Dowd shoots right. Kozak is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Dowd
Kozak
Home
51.9% (3,917)
47.6% (229)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Dowd
Kozak
P1
51.5%
54.4%
P2
50.4%
45.7%
P3
50.3%
45.7%
Final 5 min
50.4%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:23 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |