Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Gourde 46.0% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 61.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.6%
Neutral zone
Gourde 52.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Dowd
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Dowd
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Dowd
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
47.2% (687)
+3.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
45.0% (20)
-45.0%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
33.0% (88)
+8.5%
On power play, Gourde has a +45.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Gourde is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Dowd
Gourde
Home
48.2% (471)
44.4% (356)
Away
48.8% (426)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Dowd
Gourde
P1
48.3%
42.2%
P2
46.8%
50.0%
P3
51.0%
44.5%
OT
30.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |