Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Gourde 48.2% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 13-3 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 83.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 65.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Dowd
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
3
(16 meetings)
13
3
Dowd
Gourde
Last 10: Dowd 8-2 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Dowd
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
10
0
Dowd
Gourde
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
48.4% (4,987)
+3.9%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
57.4% (376)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
40.0% (555)
+4.1%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Dowd shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,950).
Home / Away
Dowd
Gourde
Home
51.9% (3,917)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Dowd
Gourde
P1
51.5%
49.8%
P2
50.4%
47.5%
P3
50.3%
47.5%
OT
45.9%
37.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:22 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 10:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:09 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 08:50 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 07:08 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 16:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 02:54 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2018 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |