Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Girgensons 46.8% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Girgensons 59.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Dowd
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Dowd
Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Girgensons
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
45.1% (164)
+5.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
50.0% (2)
-50.0%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
45.2% (31)
-3.7%
On power play, Girgensons has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Girgensons is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Dowd
Girgensons
Home
48.2% (471)
44.6% (92)
Away
48.8% (426)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Dowd
Girgensons
P1
48.3%
44.2%
P2
46.8%
46.0%
P3
51.0%
45.1%
Final 5 min
51.0%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |