Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Girgensons 45.4% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Girgensons 88.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.1%
Neutral zone
Girgensons 54.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Dowd
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Dowd
Girgensons
Last 9: Dowd 4-5 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
1
Dowd
Girgensons
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Girgensons
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Girgensons
1
3
Dowd
Girgensons
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
45.5% (2,718)
+6.8%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
49.1% (175)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
42.2% (483)
+1.9%
On power play, Dowd has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Dowd shoots right. Girgensons is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,298).
Home / Away
Dowd
Girgensons
Home
51.9% (3,917)
45.5% (1,693)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
45.0% (1,683)
By Period
Dowd
Girgensons
P1
51.5%
45.8%
P2
50.4%
44.1%
P3
50.3%
45.7%
OT
45.9%
52.5%
Final 5 min
50.4%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.5%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 12:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 10:09 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 05:47 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Zemgus Girgensons |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Zemgus Girgensons |