Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.5% vs Paul 53.6% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 81.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 57.3%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Bjugstad
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Bjugstad
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (292)
53.7% (354)
-4.0%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
59.0% (61)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
52.9% (34)
-5.7%
On power play, Paul has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Bjugstad shoots right. Paul is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Paul
Home
48.7% (193)
55.1% (216)
Away
50.4% (141)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Bjugstad
Paul
P1
41.5%
54.9%
P2
57.3%
54.5%
P3
50.0%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.7%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 00:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |