Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.0% vs Paul 52.2% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 72.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 76.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 76.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 74.8%
25.2%
74.8%
Bjugstad
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
5
(18 meetings)
13
5
Bjugstad
Paul
Last 10: Bjugstad 7-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
5
Bjugstad
Paul
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
7
0
Bjugstad
Paul
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
4
0
Bjugstad
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,646)
52.6% (3,823)
-4.0%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
56.2% (484)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
46.9% (576)
-2.6%
On even strength, Paul has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Bjugstad shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Paul
Home
49.8% (4,023)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
48.1% (4,066)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Bjugstad
Paul
P1
48.9%
53.8%
P2
49.1%
51.0%
P3
48.5%
52.2%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 00:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:22 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 15, 2023 | OT | 03:46 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 15, 2023 | OT | 03:42 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 3 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 11:46 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 06:10 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 1 | 13:35 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 7, 2016 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |