Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.0% vs Cates 43.2% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 65.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 62.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 59.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Bjugstad
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Bjugstad
Cates
Last 10: Bjugstad 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Bjugstad
Cates
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Bjugstad
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
3
Bjugstad
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,646)
44.1% (2,786)
+4.5%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
42.9% (254)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
34.9% (373)
+9.4%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Bjugstad shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Cates
Home
49.8% (4,023)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
48.1% (4,066)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Bjugstad
Cates
P1
48.9%
44.5%
P2
49.1%
43.7%
P3
48.5%
41.2%
OT
61.3%
29.4%
Final 5 min
47.4%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 03:10 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 16:52 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 03:31 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |