Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.5% vs Steel 50.6% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 58.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 59.8%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 55.3%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Bjugstad
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Bjugstad
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Bjugstad
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (292)
52.5% (200)
-2.8%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
71.4% (7)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
40.0% (45)
+7.2%
On power play, Steel has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Bjugstad shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Steel
Home
48.7% (193)
49.5% (109)
Away
50.4% (141)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Bjugstad
Steel
P1
41.5%
49.5%
P2
57.3%
47.5%
P3
50.0%
56.6%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |