Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.0% vs Aho 51.3% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 21-14 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 56.9%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 82.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 66.3%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Bjugstad
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
21
(35 meetings)
14
21
Bjugstad
Aho
Last 10: Bjugstad 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
14
Bjugstad
Aho
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
8
4
Bjugstad
Aho
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Bjugstad
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,646)
50.2% (6,646)
-1.6%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
58.9% (1,310)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
46.5% (465)
-2.2%
On power play, Aho has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Bjugstad shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Aho
Home
49.8% (4,023)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
48.1% (4,066)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Bjugstad
Aho
P1
48.9%
51.1%
P2
49.1%
52.1%
P3
48.5%
50.8%
OT
61.3%
48.9%
Final 5 min
47.4%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 15:37 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 05:11 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 12:02 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 03:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 16:28 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:12 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:01 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |