Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.0% vs Nosek 53.6% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Nosek 53.8%
Defensive zone
Nosek 74.2%
Neutral zone
Nosek 63.1%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 62.2%
37.8%
62.2%
Bjugstad
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
Bjugstad
Nosek
Last 10: Bjugstad 5-5 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
3
5
Bjugstad
Nosek
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
3
2
Bjugstad
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
5
3
Bjugstad
Nosek
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,646)
54.9% (2,710)
-6.3%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
45.8% (48)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
47.2% (428)
-2.9%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,753).
Bjugstad shoots right. Nosek is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,227).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Nosek
Home
49.8% (4,023)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
48.1% (4,066)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Bjugstad
Nosek
P1
48.9%
52.2%
P2
49.1%
54.1%
P3
48.5%
54.7%
OT
61.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:20 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:51 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 12:29 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 17:02 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 17:12 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 16, 2022 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 3 | 03:31 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 3 | 03:20 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 10, 2021 | 3 | 01:16 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 3 | 08:34 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 2 | 07:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 2 | 07:52 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 8, 2021 | 1 | 09:27 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 3 | 11:20 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 3, 2021 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |