Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bjugstad wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 47.9% vs Johnston 51.0% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 66.7%
Defensive zone
Johnston 55.6%
Neutral zone
Johnston 55.5%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Bjugstad
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Bjugstad
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Bjugstad
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (398)
52.6% (696)
-5.9%
Power Play
51.6% (31)
52.3% (88)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
42.4% (125)
+20.1%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Bjugstad is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (114).
Bjugstad shoots right. Johnston is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Johnston
Home
47.3% (220)
52.8% (458)
Away
47.5% (217)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Bjugstad
Johnston
P1
46.1%
48.9%
P2
46.3%
52.3%
P3
50.4%
51.4%
Final 5 min
46.7%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 16:38 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |