Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.9% vs Paul 53.6% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 63.6%
Defensive zone
Foligno 60.2%
Neutral zone
Foligno 54.0%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Foligno
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Foligno
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Foligno
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (291)
53.7% (354)
-4.2%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
59.0% (61)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (53)
52.9% (34)
-5.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Foligno shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Foligno
Paul
Home
48.9% (178)
55.1% (216)
Away
50.7% (209)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Foligno
Paul
P1
43.0%
54.9%
P2
55.9%
54.5%
P3
50.0%
54.3%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 09:40 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 10:57 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |