Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Paul 52.2% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 68.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 60.2%
Neutral zone
Foligno 52.4%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Foligno
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
Foligno
Paul
Last 10: Foligno 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Foligno
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
4
Foligno
Paul
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,840)
52.6% (3,823)
-4.3%
Power Play
52.3% (731)
56.2% (484)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (457)
46.9% (576)
-2.9%
On even strength, Paul has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Foligno is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,512).
Foligno shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Foligno
Paul
Home
49.9% (2,013)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
47.2% (2,017)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Foligno
Paul
P1
47.8%
53.8%
P2
50.5%
51.0%
P3
48.2%
52.2%
OT
29.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.6%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 09:40 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 10:57 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 06:44 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 08:35 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 13:35 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 07:36 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 24, 2020 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 07:56 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 16:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |