Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 87.2%
Defensive zone
Foligno 59.2%
Neutral zone
Foligno 69.5%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Foligno
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Foligno
Cates
Last 9: Foligno 6-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Foligno
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
3
0
Foligno
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
3
1
Foligno
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,840)
44.1% (2,786)
+4.2%
Power Play
52.3% (731)
42.9% (254)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (457)
34.9% (373)
+9.1%
On power play, Foligno has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Foligno is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,512).
Foligno shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Foligno
Cates
Home
49.9% (2,013)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
47.2% (2,017)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Foligno
Cates
P1
47.8%
44.5%
P2
50.5%
43.7%
P3
48.2%
41.2%
OT
29.7%
29.4%
Final 5 min
52.1%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.6%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:34 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:27 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:02 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 10:35 | Offensive | Noah Cates |