Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Foligno wins 46.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.9% vs Thomas 51.9% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 73.3%
Defensive zone
Thomas 53.2%
Neutral zone
Thomas 64.6%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Foligno
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Foligno
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Thomas
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (291)
50.3% (652)
-0.8%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
61.5% (104)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (53)
54.2% (120)
-7.0%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Foligno is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Foligno shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Foligno
Thomas
Home
48.9% (178)
52.0% (400)
Away
50.7% (209)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Foligno
Thomas
P1
43.0%
49.6%
P2
55.9%
55.4%
P3
50.0%
51.0%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.5%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 05:45 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |