Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Aho 54.9% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 60.9%
Defensive zone
Foligno 78.5%
Neutral zone
Foligno 58.1%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Foligno
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Foligno
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Foligno
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (495)
54.5% (870)
-5.8%
Power Play
56.9% (65)
62.4% (266)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (144)
37.1% (62)
+6.7%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Foligno shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Foligno
Aho
Home
49.6% (359)
53.9% (603)
Away
47.2% (345)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Foligno
Aho
P1
46.7%
54.1%
P2
52.7%
55.0%
P3
46.7%
57.4%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.8%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
40.0%▼
51.0%
48.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:04 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |