Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Aho 51.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 57.5%
Defensive zone
Foligno 54.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 50.5%
49.5%
50.5%
Foligno
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Foligno
Aho
Last 10: Foligno 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
3
2
Foligno
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
4
Foligno
Aho
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,840)
50.2% (6,646)
-1.9%
Power Play
52.3% (731)
58.9% (1,310)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (457)
46.5% (465)
-2.5%
On power play, Aho has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Foligno is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,512).
Foligno shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Foligno
Aho
Home
49.9% (2,013)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
47.2% (2,017)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Foligno
Aho
P1
47.8%
51.1%
P2
50.5%
52.1%
P3
48.2%
50.8%
OT
29.7%
48.9%
Final 5 min
52.1%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.6%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:04 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 05:12 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:11 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 06:02 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |