Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.5% vs Aho 51.3% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 56.5%
Defensive zone
Foligno 54.3%
Neutral zone
Aho 50.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Foligno
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Foligno
Aho
Last 10: Foligno 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
3
2
Foligno
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
4
Foligno
Aho
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Foligno
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,764)
50.1% (6,415)
-1.8%
Power Play
52.3% (723)
59.1% (1,297)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (447)
46.0% (446)
-2.6%
On power play, Aho has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Foligno is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,467).
Foligno shoots left. Aho is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,145).
Home / Away
Foligno
Aho
Home
49.8% (1,993)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
47.1% (1,943)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
Foligno
Aho
P1
47.9%
51.2%
P2
50.0%
52.1%
P3
48.4%
50.8%
OT
29.7%
48.9%
Final 5 min
52.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
40.0%▼
51.0%
48.5%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:04 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 12:46 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 05:12 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 02:11 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 17:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 06:02 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |