Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings). Foligno wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 30-20 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 68.9%
Defensive zone
Foligno 70.2%
Neutral zone
Foligno 69.8%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Foligno
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
30
(50 meetings)
20
30
Foligno
Stamkos
Last 10: Foligno 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
7
13
Foligno
Stamkos
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
9
12
Foligno
Stamkos
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
4
5
Foligno
Stamkos
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,840)
50.5% (9,825)
-2.2%
Power Play
52.3% (731)
55.2% (1,729)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (457)
49.6% (827)
-5.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Foligno is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,518).
Foligno shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Foligno
Stamkos
Home
49.9% (2,013)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
47.2% (2,017)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Foligno
Stamkos
P1
47.8%
49.2%
P2
50.5%
52.7%
P3
48.2%
50.9%
OT
29.7%
54.3%
Final 5 min
52.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.6%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:10 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 05:47 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OT | 00:56 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 07:18 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 18:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:48 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 2 | 18:56 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 2 | 10:12 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 1 | 03:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 6, 2021 | 3 | 15:06 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |