Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.9% vs Hertl 57.5% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 74.1%
Defensive zone
Foligno 80.6%
Neutral zone
Foligno 58.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Foligno
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Foligno
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Foligno
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (291)
58.7% (858)
-9.2%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
55.8% (285)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (53)
62.9% (35)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Foligno shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Foligno
Hertl
Home
48.9% (178)
60.1% (599)
Away
50.7% (209)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Foligno
Hertl
P1
43.0%
52.4%
P2
55.9%
63.9%
P3
50.0%
58.5%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |