Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 48.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 18-14 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 71.2%
Defensive zone
Foligno 72.4%
Neutral zone
Foligno 70.7%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Foligno
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
18
(32 meetings)
14
18
Foligno
Hertl
Last 10: Foligno 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
8
Foligno
Hertl
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
8
7
Foligno
Hertl
15 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Foligno
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (2,840)
53.9% (8,303)
-5.6%
Power Play
52.3% (731)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (457)
46.3% (806)
-2.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Foligno is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,512).
Foligno shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Foligno
Hertl
Home
49.9% (2,013)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
47.2% (2,017)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Foligno
Hertl
P1
47.8%
53.6%
P2
50.5%
54.2%
P3
48.2%
55.3%
OT
29.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
52.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 15:50 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:40 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 15:04 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 01:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:53 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 3 | 14:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 3 | 12:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 3 | 10:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 17:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |