Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs McLeod 49.5% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 58.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 57.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 59.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Paul
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Paul
McLeod
Last 10: Paul 7-3 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Paul
McLeod
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
2
Paul
McLeod
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
4
Paul
McLeod
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
50.4% (3,376)
+2.2%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
50.7% (296)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
44.1% (644)
+2.8%
On power play, Paul has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Paul shoots left. McLeod is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,809).
Home / Away
Paul
McLeod
Home
52.8% (2,445)
50.0% (2,202)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Paul
McLeod
P1
53.8%
50.8%
P2
51.0%
48.0%
P3
52.2%
50.0%
OT
50.0%
37.1%
Final 5 min
51.3%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 19:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 17:48 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:51 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 05:33 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 01:54 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |