Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Paul wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.6% vs Monahan 52.5% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 51.9%
Defensive zone
Monahan 50.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 58.1%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Paul
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Paul
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Paul
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (354)
53.0% (874)
+0.7%
Power Play
59.0% (61)
54.7% (161)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (34)
47.5% (101)
+5.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Paul shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Paul
Monahan
Home
55.1% (216)
53.8% (558)
Away
53.6% (233)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Paul
Monahan
P1
54.9%
49.5%
P2
54.5%
54.8%
P3
54.3%
52.8%
OT
44.4%
61.9%
Final 5 min
57.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 04:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |