Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Monahan 51.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 19-14 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 63.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 71.8%
Neutral zone
Paul 53.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Paul
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
14
(33 meetings)
19
14
Paul
Monahan
Last 10: Paul 6-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
3
Paul
Monahan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
13
4
Paul
Monahan
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
5
7
Paul
Monahan
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
51.1% (11,407)
+1.5%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
53.6% (2,582)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
45.9% (772)
+1.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Paul shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
Paul
Monahan
Home
52.8% (2,445)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Paul
Monahan
P1
53.8%
51.0%
P2
51.0%
51.7%
P3
52.2%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
51.3%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 04:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 01:31 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:01 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 07:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |