Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.0% vs Aho 54.9% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 62.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 75.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 56.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Paul
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Paul
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Paul
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (666)
54.5% (870)
-5.7%
Power Play
53.8% (65)
62.4% (266)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (55)
37.1% (62)
+22.9%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Paul shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Paul
Aho
Home
49.7% (348)
53.9% (603)
Away
50.2% (438)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Paul
Aho
P1
51.0%
54.1%
P2
47.4%
55.0%
P3
51.5%
57.4%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.0%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Neutral | Nick Paul |