Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Jarvis 42.5% (+11.0%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 59.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 77.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 72.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
Paul
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Paul
Jarvis
Last 10: Paul 5-5 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
1
Paul
Jarvis
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
3
4
Paul
Jarvis
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
41.8% (354)
+10.8%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
43.7% (119)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
38.2% (157)
+8.7%
On power play, Paul has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Paul shoots left. Jarvis is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Paul
Jarvis
Home
52.8% (2,445)
43.8% (336)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
38.4% (294)
By Period
Paul
Jarvis
P1
53.8%
39.5%
P2
51.0%
39.5%
P3
52.2%
45.8%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
38.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:51 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 2 | 02:21 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 03:49 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 09:11 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:15 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 17:37 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Nick Paul |