Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Paul wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.6% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 61.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 79.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 64.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Paul
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Paul
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Paul
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (354)
57.1% (368)
-3.4%
Power Play
59.0% (61)
55.2% (96)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (34)
50.0% (10)
+2.9%
On power play, Paul has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Paul is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Paul shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Paul
Stamkos
Home
55.1% (216)
53.9% (230)
Away
53.6% (233)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Paul
Stamkos
P1
54.9%
56.7%
P2
54.5%
54.1%
P3
54.3%
59.2%
OT
44.4%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.7%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |