Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 15-3 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 67.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 59.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 51.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Paul
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
15
(18 meetings)
3
15
Paul
Stamkos
Last 10: Paul 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
14
Paul
Stamkos
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
50.5% (9,825)
+2.1%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
55.2% (1,729)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
49.6% (827)
-2.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Paul shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Paul
Stamkos
Home
52.8% (2,445)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Paul
Stamkos
P1
53.8%
49.2%
P2
51.0%
52.7%
P3
52.2%
50.9%
OT
50.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
51.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 15:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 1, 2022 | 1 | 03:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 16:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 10:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 08:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 03:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 14:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 16:07 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 3 | 00:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |