Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Nosek 53.6% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 56.7%
Defensive zone
Nosek 51.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Paul
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
12
(22 meetings)
10
12
Paul
Nosek
Last 10: Paul 3-7 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Paul
Nosek
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
4
Paul
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
5
4
Paul
Nosek
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (3,823)
54.9% (2,710)
-2.3%
Power Play
56.2% (484)
45.8% (48)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (576)
47.2% (428)
-0.3%
On power play, Paul has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Paul shoots left. Nosek is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,959).
Home / Away
Paul
Nosek
Home
52.8% (2,445)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Paul
Nosek
P1
53.8%
52.2%
P2
51.0%
54.1%
P3
52.2%
54.7%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 02:07 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 18:25 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 15:29 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:18 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:43 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 11:32 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |