Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Schmaltz wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Zacha 51.8% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 78.9%
Defensive zone
Zacha 76.1%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 50.7%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Schmaltz
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Schmaltz
Zacha
Last 6: Schmaltz 3-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Schmaltz
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
0
Schmaltz
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (697)
53.0% (700)
-7.1%
Power Play
47.9% (117)
54.1% (109)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
39.2% (74)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Schmaltz shoots right. Zacha is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Zacha
Home
44.9% (434)
51.6% (438)
Away
47.7% (405)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Schmaltz
Zacha
P1
41.5%
57.0%
P2
46.7%
48.9%
P3
51.1%
50.5%
OT
0.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
40.5%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:00 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:23 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:34 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |