Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Schmaltz wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Monahan 52.5% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 83.0%
Defensive zone
Monahan 54.0%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 61.3%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 62.9%
62.9%
37.1%
Schmaltz
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Schmaltz
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Schmaltz
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Schmaltz
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (697)
53.0% (874)
-7.1%
Power Play
47.9% (117)
54.7% (161)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
47.5% (101)
+0.5%
On even strength, Monahan has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Schmaltz shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Monahan
Home
44.9% (434)
53.8% (558)
Away
47.7% (405)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Schmaltz
Monahan
P1
41.5%
49.5%
P2
46.7%
54.8%
P3
51.1%
52.8%
OT
0.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
40.5%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 18:57 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 05:12 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 18:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |