Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Schmaltz wins 41.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Novak 42.6% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 71.5%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 58.6%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 75.2%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Schmaltz
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Schmaltz
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
0
Schmaltz
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (697)
40.5% (405)
+5.4%
Power Play
47.9% (117)
45.5% (33)
+2.4%
On even strength, Schmaltz has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Schmaltz shoots right. Novak is 39.6% vs right-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Novak
Home
44.9% (434)
42.0% (212)
Away
47.7% (405)
39.8% (226)
By Period
Schmaltz
Novak
P1
41.5%
41.7%
P2
46.7%
39.5%
P3
51.1%
42.1%
OT
0.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 14:06 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |