Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 49.4% vs Johnston 51.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 72.1%
Defensive zone
Johnston 85.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 67.0%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Schmaltz
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Schmaltz
Johnston
Last 6: Schmaltz 4-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
4
0
Schmaltz
Johnston
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Schmaltz
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Schmaltz
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (268)
52.6% (696)
-4.5%
Power Play
50.5% (91)
52.3% (88)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
42.4% (125)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Schmaltz is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Schmaltz shoots right. Johnston is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Johnston
Home
49.0% (206)
52.8% (458)
Away
49.4% (170)
49.4% (451)
By Period
Schmaltz
Johnston
P1
53.6%
48.9%
P2
46.2%
52.3%
P3
50.4%
51.4%
OT
16.7%
70.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
49.2%
Johnston
44.0%▼
47.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:13 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:10 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 15:38 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 15:36 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |