Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Schmaltz wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Johnston 48.0% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 70.6%
Defensive zone
Johnston 68.2%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 51.9%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Schmaltz
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Schmaltz
Johnston
Last 10: Schmaltz 4-6 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Schmaltz
Johnston
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
0
Schmaltz
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
2
3
Schmaltz
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (697)
47.3% (666)
-1.4%
Power Play
47.9% (117)
50.7% (69)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (25)
51.4% (35)
-3.4%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Schmaltz shoots right. Johnston is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Johnston
Home
44.9% (434)
47.5% (364)
Away
47.7% (405)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Schmaltz
Johnston
P1
41.5%
49.4%
P2
46.7%
46.9%
P3
51.1%
47.1%
OT
0.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
40.5%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 18:43 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:12 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 10:20 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 06:31 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:00 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |