Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +20.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 56.1% vs left-shot opponents — Alexandrov shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Alexandrov 41.2% (+20.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Sturm
Alexandrov
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sturm
Alexandrov
Last 8: Sturm 5-3 Alexandrov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Alexandrov
0
2
Sturm
Alexandrov
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
0
Sturm
Alexandrov
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Alexandrov
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Alexandrov
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
35.6% (146)
+20.5%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
33.3% (3)
+34.4%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
0.0% (1)
+51.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +51.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Alexandrov shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Sturm shoots left. Alexandrov is 37.1% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
Sturm
Alexandrov
Home
55.6% (412)
32.8% (61)
Away
56.0% (468)
37.1% (89)
By Period
Sturm
Alexandrov
P1
59.6%
41.7%
P2
52.0%
30.2%
P3
55.5%
33.9%
Final 5 min
56.8%
37.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.8%
Alexandrov
40.0%▬
39.5%
35.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 10:23 | Neutral | Nikita Alexandrov |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 07:40 | Offensive | Nikita Alexandrov |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 09:43 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Nikita Alexandrov |