Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +19.4% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Alexandrov shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Alexandrov 45.5% (+19.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Alexandrov 58.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 75.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 50.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Sturm
Alexandrov
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Sturm
Alexandrov
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Alexandrov
0
1
Sturm
Alexandrov
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Alexandrov
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Alexandrov
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
40.7% (91)
+19.9%
On even strength, Sturm has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Alexandrov shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Sturm shoots left. Alexandrov is 39.6% vs left-shot opponents (53).
Home / Away
Sturm
Alexandrov
Home
61.6% (451)
53.2% (47)
Away
58.2% (376)
27.3% (44)
By Period
Sturm
Alexandrov
P1
55.9%
50.0%
P2
58.9%
22.7%
P3
64.6%
40.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
60.1%
Alexandrov
40.0%▬
39.5%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Nikita Alexandrov |