Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Zacha 51.8% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 69.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 61.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 50.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Sturm
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Sturm
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Zacha
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
53.0% (700)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
39.2% (74)
+15.2%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Sturm shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Sturm
Zacha
Home
53.0% (168)
51.6% (438)
Away
56.0% (193)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Sturm
Zacha
P1
58.2%
57.0%
P2
53.2%
48.9%
P3
52.3%
50.5%
OT
100.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
55.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:59 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |