Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 67.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Stamkos 55.2% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 68.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 81.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 54.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Sturm
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Sturm
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Sturm
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
55.9% (499)
+4.7%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
56.3% (126)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
58.3% (12)
-1.9%
On power play, Sturm has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Sturm shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Sturm
Stamkos
Home
61.6% (451)
55.3% (349)
Away
58.2% (376)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Sturm
Stamkos
P1
55.9%
57.0%
P2
58.9%
59.2%
P3
64.6%
51.5%
OT
70.6%
55.6%
Final 5 min
59.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
60.1%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 16:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |