Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.4% vs 56.0%). Sturm wins 56.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 54.1% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Sturm
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Sturm
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Sturm
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
0
Sturm
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (233)
56.7% (254)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
59.5% (74)
100.0% (2)
-40.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +40.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Sturm is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Sturm shoots left. Stamkos is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Home / Away
Sturm
Stamkos
Home
54.4% (149)
51.9% (158)
Away
56.3% (158)
59.8% (174)
By Period
Sturm
Stamkos
P1
57.1%
56.5%
P2
55.0%
55.0%
P3
53.7%
56.5%
OT
100.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.8%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.4%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |