Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lewis on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 64.3% vs right-shot opponents — Lewis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Lewis 47.7% (+12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lewis 66.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 64.0%
Neutral zone
Lewis 51.8%
Result
Trevor Lewis favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Sturm
Lewis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Sturm
Lewis
Last 6: Sturm 3-3 Lewis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Lewis
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Lewis
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lewis
1
3
Sturm
Lewis
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Lewis
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
46.0% (189)
+16.1%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
100.0% (2)
-25.0%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
42.9% (7)
-4.2%
On power play, Lewis has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lewis shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Sturm shoots left. Lewis is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (132).
Home / Away
Sturm
Lewis
Home
61.8% (191)
43.3% (90)
Away
56.3% (231)
49.1% (108)
By Period
Sturm
Lewis
P1
58.0%
46.9%
P2
57.9%
46.3%
P3
60.6%
46.3%
Final 5 min
58.3%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
58.8%
Lewis
34.0%▼
46.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2 | 02:20 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 11:36 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 08:47 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 05:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |